Exit polls indicate that the Congress party is on track to end the BJP’s decade-long governance in Haryana, with projections suggesting they will secure enough seats to form the next government. In contrast, the Congress-National Conference alliance in Jammu and Kashmir is leading the electoral race but is anticipated to fall short of the majority needed to govern, signaling a potentially fractured mandate.
In Haryana, voters cast their ballots for 90 assembly seats on October 5, with the majority threshold set at 46. Four major exit polls suggest a strong performance for Congress, estimating they could win around 55 seats, surpassing the majority mark. Initial exit polls indicated an even more substantial victory, with projections of 57 seats for Congress. Here’s a summary of predictions from various pollsters:
Matrize: Congress is projected to win between 55-62 seats, BJP 18-24, and the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) 3-6 seats, with others possibly claiming 2-5 seats.
Peoples Pulse: Congress is expected to secure between 49-61 seats, BJP 20-32, INLD 2-3, and others 3-5 seats.
Dhruv Research: Congress is likely to bag 50-64 seats, BJP 22-32 seats, and others 2-8 seats.
Dainik Bhaskar: Congress is predicted to win 44-54 seats, BJP 15-29, INLD 1-5, and others 4-9 seats.
These projections suggest a significant setback for the ruling BJP, which is forecasted to secure only 14 seats according to initial exit polls. Smaller parties like the INLD are expected to play a minimal role in shaping the political landscape, with low seat counts anticipated for them.
In Jammu and Kashmir, where elections for 90 assembly seats were conducted after a delimitation process, the Congress-NC alliance is leading but is likely to fall short of a majority. Exit polls suggest they will win 43 seats, just three seats shy of the 46 needed for a clear majority, potentially resulting in a hung assembly and complex coalition negotiations post-results.
The projected lead for the Congress-NC alliance hints at a fractured mandate in Jammu and Kashmir, which has been under direct central rule since August 2019, following the abrogation of Article 370. This situation could lead to extended negotiations as parties seek to form a workable majority.
The outcomes of these exit polls in Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir are being closely monitored for their broader implications on national politics. Official results are expected to be announced by the Election Commission on October 8, potentially offering insights into voter sentiment ahead of upcoming state elections in Maharashtra and Jharkhand later this year.
