This forecast carries a margin of four days, meaning the monsoon could arrive anytime between May 22 and May 30.

Typically, the monsoon arrives in Kerala around June 1st; however, this time, it is expected to arrive approximately six days earlier.

Meteorologists believe that the emergence of El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean could dampen the monsoon’s intensity, leading to a forecast of reduced rainfall across the country.

According to Skymet Weather, monsoon rainfall this year could be 6% lower than normal. The normal average rainfall for the country during the four monsoon months—from June to September—stands at 868.6 millimeters. This private agency has projected rainfall levels at 94% of the normal average.

The IMD said that the monsoon is expected to reach Madhya Pradesh between June 10 and June 16. After reaching Kerala around May 26, the monsoon will advance further to enter Madhya Pradesh. It is expected that the monsoon may make its entry through the western districts of the state—Khandwa, Khargone, Barwani, and Burhanpur.

According to the IMD, most districts in the state are likely to receive normal rainfall this season. On average, rainfall is expected to range between 75 and 80 CM. While rainfall is likely to be above normal in Bhopal, Vidisha, and Sehore, the rainfall may be normal or below in Indore, Ujjain, Gwalior, Chambal, Jabalpur, Rewa, Shahdol, and Sagar divisions.